881 FXUS64 KTSA 051742 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1242 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1202 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 - Daily shower and thunderstorm chances persist through Monday. Heavy rain and localized flooding are the main concerns. - A few storms could become marginally severe this weekend into Monday. Main hazards will be damaging wind gusts and large hail. - Hot and humid weather arrives next week, with heat headlines likely. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Mid/upper-level low, currently spinning over northwest Mexico, will steadily lift northeast over the next 48 to 72 hours. A weak lobe of vorticity/shortwave trough downstream from its center has generated scattered showers across southeast OK and western AR this morning and early this afternoon. This isolated to widely scattered activity will run parallel to the 850-700mb moisture axis and is expected to mostly remain south of I-44 and persist through this afternoon. 12Z RAOBs from SGF and OUN and mesoscale analysis data show PWATs range between 1.5 to 2.0 inches north-to- south across the forecast area. Daytime heating in the afternoon should further destabilize the environment and help intensify showers and thunderstorms a bit, causing periods of moderate to heavy rainfall with stronger updrafts that are able to form. Mid- level flow and lift across the region continues to be weak and therefore the severe threat remains very low. Minor/nuisance flooding will the be the primary hazard with slow-moving and/or training storms this afternoon. Convection this afternoon will wane sometime around sunset with the loss of daytime heating. As the aforementioned upper-level low draws closer to the area, a few showers may linger across southeast OK this evening and overnight tonight. No impacts expected. Otherwise, cloud coverage will remain thick tonight and will help keep temperatures mild and muggy. Overnight lows will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Low-level moisture will continue to be further advected and drawn northward from the Gulf region Saturday and Sunday as the upper- level low drifts over western TX, western OK, and eventually over eastern KS by Sunday morning. As a result, precipitation chances will become much more widespread and intensify. Heaviest rainfall is expected to occur Saturday night through Sunday, when the low is at its closest proximity to the area. The low and its trough axis shifts northeast and away from the area late Sunday night into Monday, with mostly dry weather by Monday afternoon. Rainfall amounts between today (Friday) and Monday morning will vary and highly dependent where training and more robust updrafts in storms set up, but most locations are forecast to receive one to two inches, with isolated pockets of four inches or greater. Flash flood guidance shows widespread values around three to four inches before flash flooding become a concern. Will forgo a Flood Watch at this time, but may need one if QPF trends rise. As for the severe threat, wind shear will increase Saturday and into Sunday, supporting the possibility for a few marginally severe thunderstorms, especially Saturday night into Sunday. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the primary concerns other than flooding. As the upper-level low/trough exit Monday into Tuesday, strong upper-level ridging will build into the region. This will cause a drying and warming trend through the workweek, with daytime temperatures in the 90s returning for most locations by Tuesday. Heat headlines, for at least parts of the CWA, look probable as early as Monday, with better confidence of heat advisory criteria being reached on Tuesday. Temperatures stay unseasonably hot with mostly dry weather through Friday. Long-range models shows the next best chance of precipitation and cooler weather will arrive beyond the long-term period as a cold front approaches from the north. Mejia && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Widespread MVFR cigs will continue to gradually lift and scatter this afternoon with conditions improving to VFR across E OK sites earlier this afternoon than NW AR sites. Scattered showers with some isolated thunder will possible through the afternoon as well, mainly for AR terminals and across far E OK. Showers should wane with sunset this evening with VFR conditions prevailing into the overnight hours. Low clouds will then surge back northward into the region late tonight into tomorrow with MVFR and IFR conditions likely by daybreak Saturday. Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances are also noted Saturday morning across much of the area. Gusty southerly winds this afternoon will generally become light tonight into tomorrow. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 71 81 69 83 / 20 60 80 90 FSM 71 83 71 85 / 40 80 70 100 MLC 71 82 70 84 / 50 90 80 80 BVO 70 81 66 82 / 20 50 90 90 FYV 69 80 69 82 / 20 80 70 100 BYV 67 79 67 81 / 20 70 50 90 MKO 69 80 68 82 / 40 80 80 90 MIO 70 81 68 82 / 20 60 70 100 F10 69 80 68 83 / 30 80 80 90 HHW 70 81 70 83 / 60 90 80 90 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...04