579 

FXUS65 KTWC 052132

AFDTWC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tucson AZ

232 PM MST Fri Jun 5 2026



.SYNOPSIS...Afternoon high temperatures will remain near to 

slightly above normal through the weekend into next week. There

is a slight chance of thunderstorms along and near the Arizona

and New Mexico state line today. These storms will be capable of

producing wind gusts to 35 mph and localized blowing dust,

especially along Interstate 10 through the San Simon valley this

afternoon and early this evening. Otherwise, breezy conditions 

are expected each afternoon. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...The upper pattern early this afternoon is defined

by an upper-low centered over Chihuahua Mexico and an upper

ridge in the Eastern pacific near 24.5N/127.0W, with a ridge

axis extending into NE Arizona. This pattern results in a 

decent NNE/SSW deformation axis aloft over SW NM. The latest 

GOES blended precipitable water imagery indicated the moisture 

that resided across our eastern zones yesterday have since 

moved/eroded east into New Mexico, with PWAT values between 0.60

inches along the AZ/NM state line this afternoon up to 0.75 

inches in SW NM. The combination of this lift/forcing aloft 

with the mid-level moisture available to the east of our neck of

the woods should result in scattered thunderstorms development 

across extreme SW NM this afternoon, with storm motions pushing 

them SSW toward the AZ/NM state-line late this afternoon into

the early evening hours. I manually added a slight chance of 

thunderstorms into our far eastern zones as the inherited NBM 

PoPs were in the low single digits. However, I don't think we 

will see much in the way of precipitation in our CWA though. I 

think we have a decent shot of seeing strong and organized 

outflow winds (35+ kts) make their way into SE Graham/ERN 

Cochise. This is supported by the 05/12Z HREF which indicated a 

30-50 percent neighborhood probability of outflow winds in 

excess of 30+ kts along the border between 05/22Z this 

afternoon and 06/04Z this evening. 



Otherwise, the upper ridge across the Desert Southwest gets

shunted east as a mean trough develops across the western

states this weekend, with the trough axis eventually tracking 

east through Southeast Arizona the first half of next week. This

should result in stronger southwest surface winds Tuesday and 

possibly Wednesday of next week, thus increasing the potential 

for critical fire weather conditions. Unfortunately, it still 

looks like there is a large variance between ensemble members of

the NBM grand ensemble with regards to the strength and timing 

of the Day 4 and 5 trough axis. 



&&



.AVIATION...Valid through 07/00Z. SCT-BKN 10k-12k feet AGL 

mainly near and east of KSAD-KOLS through the early evening,

clearing overnight. Increasing high clouds AOA 20-25k feet AGL 

move in from the west during the day Saturday. Surface winds 

northwest 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts this afternoon.

Stronger northwest winds in the Gila River Valley with KSAD 

17-20 kts with gusts up to 32 kts through 06/03Z, diminishing 

thereafter. A few stronger gusts to 30-35 kts with localized

VSBY 3-5SM in BLDU will be possible this afternoon and early 

this evening from storms along and east of the Arizona/New 

Mexico state line. 



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Afternoon high temperatures will remain near to 

slightly above normal through the weekend into next week. There

is a slight chance of thunderstorms along and near the Arizona

and New Mexico state line today. These storms will be capable of

producing wind gusts to 35 mph and localized blowing dust,

especially along Interstate 10 through the San Simon and Gila

River valleys this afternoon into early this evening. 



Minimum relative humidity values in the single digits across 

most lower elevation locations with 10-15 percent values in the 

mountains. Winds this afternoon and Saturday will be northwesterly

10-15 mph across much of Southeast Arizona, with stronger winds

anticipated across the Gila River Valley (18-24 mph with gusts 

up to 35 mph) into the early evening. This wind and low 

relative humidity combination will bring periods of locally 

critical fire weather conditions. Otherwise, winds Sunday 

onwards will turn to the southwest with winds 12-18 mph and 

gusts up to 30 mph each afternoon through much of next week.



&&



.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



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