469 

AWUS01 KWNH 042319

FFGMPD

MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-050500-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0318

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

718 PM EDT Thu Jun 04 2026



Areas affected...Northeast KS...Far Southeast NEB...Northwest

MO...Southern to East-Central IA...



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 042320Z - 050500Z



SUMMARY...Southwest to northeast repeating thunderstorms result in

streaks of 2-4" totals and continue risk of localized flash

flooding through early overnight period.



DISCUSSION...CIRA LPW suite depicts core of warm conveyor belt

returning along northwest edge of deep layer ridge in the

southeast, resulting in core of 1.75-2" Total PWat stretching from

E KS across IA into W WI; with each layer in the 95th-99th

percentile with higher percentiles in the lower layers (Tds in the

upper 60s and lower 70s).   Current complex along the axis is

being forced by an old shortwave from the southwest that is

starting to open back up in a broader wave in the 925-850mb layer;

though mid to upper level dPVA and right entrance ascent patterns

continue to maintain a weak linear convective complex.



This is mostly given the limitations of the vertical heating and

lack of general instability, with values across IA dipping below

1000 J/kg which is sufficient to maintain moderate convection in

the overall dynamic ascent; especially given deep layer flow is

unidirectional through steering and quite favorable for

repeating/training profiles. Upstream, however, clearer skies over

E KS has MLCAPE pool of 2000 J/kg advecting into the confluent

upstream edge of the exiting shortwave.  As such, favorable

back-building is starting to become more evident in the congested

low level cu/TCu filed in NE KS (before stronger CBs are seen

nearer the NEB border counties attm.  Stronger northern stream

influences (digging approaching trough) will further help

strengthen the LLJ toward diurnal maximum to further enhance

moisture flux convergence and rainfall efficiency.



As such, the upwind edge will continue to see scattered

1.75-2"+/hr rates, with some training capability into NE MO and

southern IA through the early evening.  Streaks of 2-4" are

possible (greater upstream), but longer duration of training due

to weaker cold pool and reduced height-falls/influence from the

northern stream will allow for slower eastward propagation further

northeast into central and eastern IA where the instability is

less.   As such, the risk for localized flash flooding will remain

possible through early overnight period. 



Gallina



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ICT...OAX...TOP...



ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...



LAT...LON   42619225 42329136 41669151 40659230 39489380 

            38679527 38119687 38229791 38869799 39759742 

            40359683 41299580 42039454 42449337