889 

AWUS01 KWNH 050124

FFGMPD

TXZ000-050700-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0320

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

923 PM EDT Thu Jun 04 2026



Areas affected...Western Texas Panhandle...



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 050125Z - 050700Z



SUMMARY...Strong slow moving thunderstorms capable of quick 1.5"

in hour or less pose highly focused/localized incident or two of

flash flooding.



DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows a strong closed low over

southern Sonora/N Sinaloa state in Mexico with broad diffluent

pattern across Chihuahua and Western Texas Panhandle.  The speed

max is streaking westward with right entrance ascent, while the

right branch and left exit of 70kt+ streak is bending

anticyclonically across Coahuila into the Edwards Plateau of W

Texas.  Moisture has remained pooled along the Rio Grande Valley

for the last few days with mid to upper 50s Tds analyzed (though

upper 60s and 70s reside in the lower RGV, southeast of the

Pecos); this and direct heating and modest lapse rates continue t

to support 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE as the day fades.  Outflow from

initial convection in Mexico as well as peaks in far W Tx along

the Hueco Range has helped to support some additional convergence

for newer convective cells to sprout quickly, with a slow

southeast propagation through the next few hours.  The strong

outflow aloft and sufficient low level moisture should allow for

quick cloud base moisture loading to support quick bursts of

1-1.5" in 30 to 60 minutes, kick an outflow to help trigger later

convection down the line.



A shortwave/vorticity center is lifting northward through the

divergent flow and is likely to initiate further convection over

the higher terrain of Chihuahua that has potential to reach the

Big Bend later into the overnight and may also intersect with some

of these initial scattered cells propagating southeastward.  Given

hard, rocky ground conditions, localized flash flooding will

remain possible across the area through the early overnight

period. 



Gallina



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...EPZ...MAF...



ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...



LAT...LON   31910548 31850492 31460421 30730286 29930191 

            29410270 28960300 29070362 29580451 30360494 

            30780548 31180596 31580592