152 

AWUS01 KWNH 050432

FFGMPD

MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-051030-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0321

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

1230 AM EDT Fri Jun 05 2026



Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...Far Southeast

Nebraska...Northwest Missouri...Southern Iowa



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely



Valid 050430Z - 051030Z



SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms with significant

concerns for backbuilding and training of convective cells are

expected overnight across northeast KS, far southeast NE,

northwest MO, and southern IA. Already pockets of flash flooding

are ongoing, and with 1.5 to 2.5 inch/hour rainfall rates expected

with the convection, some additional rainfall totals of 3 to 6+

inches will be possible overnight. Locally significant and

life-threatening flash flooding will be possible as a result.



DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a

well-organized axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms across

portions of northeast KS, northwest MO and southern IA. The

convection is in a highly efficient environment for extreme

rainfall rates as an ejecting compact vort center/shortwave

interacts with a nocturnally enhanced 30 to 40+ kt southwesterly

low-level jet.



Deep moisture convergence is strong, with precipitable water

values of 1.7 to 1.9 inches contributing to highly efficient

warm-rain physical processes and deep warm cloud layers.

Instability remains sufficient to support robust convection, with

MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg, while 30 to 40 kts of

effective bulk shear sustains storm organization.



Of significant concern are the favorable Corfidi vectors promoting

slow storm motions, backbuilding, and cell-training over areas

with ongoing flash flood warnings. Instantaneous rainfall rates

are peaking at 1.5 to 2.5 inches per hour. The 00Z HREF and REFS

suite strongly supports 50 to 80 percent probabilities of

exceeding 3-hour flash flood guidance through the overnight hours,

with a consensus of hires CAMs supporting additional rainfall

amounts of 3 to 6+ inches.



The combination of intense rainfall rates, significant moisture

anomalies, and a sustained training storm mode supports a likely

flash flood threat with considerable runoff potential. Some urban

locations may locally experience significant and life-threatening

flash flooding over the next several hours. This may include the

St. Joseph, MO vicinity along with adjacent communities back into

northeast KS and also off to the northeast across northwest MO.



Orrison



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...OAX...TOP...



ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...



LAT...LON   41569216 41189184 40529216 39959294 39299426 

            38989520 38919615 39159666 39679668 40229610 

            40819493 41359357