057 

AWUS01 KWNH 051225

FFGMPD

TXZ000-051700-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0323

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

824 AM EDT Fri Jun 05 2026



Areas affected...southeastern TX



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 051223Z - 051700Z



SUMMARY...Widely scattered narrow axes of training showers and

thunderstorms across southeastern TX may result in isolated

pockets of flash flooding over the next 4-5 hours. Hourly rainfall

locally in excess of 2 inches will be possible.



DISCUSSION...12Z regional radar imagery over the TX Coastal Plain

depicted scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms, moving

from SSE to NNW. Low level flow of about 10 to 20 kt (slightly

stronger over the upper TX coast into the Piney Woods region) was

oriented perpendicular to the coast, resulting in the widely

scattered shower activity. Surface observations at 12Z showed the

reflection of a remnant surface frontal boundary, represented by

lower dewpoints to its north and east, extending from the northern

Gulf Coast into southeastern TX. MLCAPE was also reflective of

this boundary with a gradient shown on the 12Z SPC mesoanalysis

with 500 to 1500 J/kg located on the warm side of the remnant

frontal boundary across the TX Coastal Plain, with little to no

instability to its north. Near this gradient was weakly convergent

flow in the 0-2 km AGL layer, partially aligned with the mean

steering flow from the SSE.



Due to the similar orientation of the low level and steering flow,

with low level flow slightly stronger than 10-15 kt steering flow,

some training and brief backbuilding of cells will be possible

over the next few hours. Southeastern TX was also beneath the

ridge axis of a broader upper ridge over the Gulf, aiding in weak

upper diffluence. With GPS PWs of 2.0 to 2.1 inches over

southeastern TX, the environment will be supportive of efficient

rainfall with potential for 1 to 2 inches of rain in an hour

(locally higher possible), and 2 to 4+ inch storm totals.



While the coverage of these higher rates remains quite uncertain

and could end up highly localized, portions of southeastern TX

have picked up 3 to 6+ inches of rain over the past 2-3 days,

resulting in pockets of higher soil moisture and reduced

infiltration capacity. Therefore, in addition to urban overlap,

additional heavy rain of 2 to 4+ inches falling atop any

hyrdologically sensitive locations could result in isolated flash

flooding over the next 4-5 hours.



Otto



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...



ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...



LAT...LON   31459581 31229519 30809482 30519443 30209395 

            29539397 28609538 27929674 29139734 30869710 

            31369652