384 

AWUS01 KWNH 051704

FFGMPD

LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-052130-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0324

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

103 PM EDT Fri Jun 05 2026



Areas affected...eastern TX into far southeastern OK



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 051700Z - 052130Z



SUMMARY...An isolated flash flood threat will continue through the

afternoon hours for eastern TX into far southeastern OK. Narrow

axes of training showers and thunderstorms will support 1 to 2

in/hr rainfall but also have the potential to produce hourly

rainfall locally in excess of 2 inches.



DISCUSSION...1640Z radar and visible satellite imagery showed

scattered showers and thunderstorms over southeastern TX with some

recent expansion northward toward the I-20 corridor between FTW

and TYR. Breaks in cloud cover over eastern TX were helping with

slightly better surface heating compared to the thicker cloud

cover over central TX at the moment. The airmass over eastern TX

remained very moist with PWs of 2.0 to 2.2 inches and unstable

with 500 to 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE (via 16Z SPC mesoanalysis data). Low

level directional convergence/confluence remained better focused

across southeastern TX where low level southeasterly winds near

the lower Sabine River met with a more southerly flow to the west

over east-central TX.



While confluent axes were weak and somewhat transient, there

should remain a better focus for low level forcing over eastern

TX, aligned with the mean steering flow, allowing for training and

brief backbuilding of cells. The low level confluence axis is

forecast by the RAP to slowly shift north this afternoon but lose

some definition and become offset in orientation from the mean

steering flow. Despite the less favorable setup into northeastern

TX later this afternoon, this area will maintain a limited threat

for training and brief backbuilding. Due to the moist and unstable

environment, areas of training will carry the likelihood for 1 to

2+ in/hr rainfall rates along with a few totals of 2 to 4 inches

(locally higher). A few locations could see isolated flash

flooding over the next 4-5 hours.



Otto



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...OUN...SHV...TSA...



ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...



LAT...LON   34599546 33419511 32329464 30299374 29509497 

            29119590 29509662 31079726 32839746 34389654