206 

AWUS01 KWNH 051817

FFGMPD

TXZ000-NMZ000-060000-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0325

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

216 PM EDT Fri Jun 05 2026



Areas affected...western TX into southeastern NM



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 051816Z - 060000Z



SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms, some with slow movement,

will pose an isolated flash flood threat across portions of

western TX into southeastern NM. Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches in 30

to 60 minutes will be possible.



DISCUSSION...GOES East water vapor imagery showed a closed upper

level low over Chihuahua with a visually inferred and RAP analysis

supported jet streak located to its southeast (80 kt) over

Coahuila with left-exit region ascent over portions of western TX,

west of the Pecos River. With a portion of the mid-level trough

extending northeastward from Mexico into southeastern NM and the

TX Panhandle, weak steering flow was in place for a notable

portion of far western TX into southeastern NM and parts of the TX

Panhandle.



Visible satellite and radar imagery have already confirmed

convective initiation across portions of the region where more

favorable solar insolation has allowed for an expanding region of

500-1500+ J/kg MLCAPE where PW values remained anomalous (+1 to +2

standardized anomalies) as they have for the past several days.



Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across portions of

southeastern NM into portions of western TX with continued daytime

heating and reduction of CIN. Another contributing factor will be

the expected northeastward movement of the closed low over Mexico,

which will provide increased ascent and diffluence aloft across

western TX.



While thunderstorm coverage is not expected to be numerous

throughout the afternoon/early evening, there will likely be a few

slower moving cells and smaller clusters with the potential to

produce 1 to 2 inches of rain in 30 to 60 minutes. Portions of the

region have seen well above average rainfall over the past week

and areas of lowered flash flood guidance exist as a result.

Therefore, isolated flash flooding will be possible over western

TX into southeastern NM through ~00Z.



Otto



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF...SJT...



ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...



LAT...LON   34760140 34280063 33460037 32560073 30980132 

            30220193 29700315 29870364 30240402 30730433 

            31130503 31510559 32240608 33490572 33560441 

            33870320 34460224