423 

AWUS01 KWNH 051925

FFGMPD

TXZ000-OKZ000-060124-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0326

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

324 PM EDT Fri Jun 05 2026



Areas affected...western Oklahoma through western north Texas, the

eastern Texas Panhandle, and surrounding areas



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 051924Z - 060124Z



Summary...Scattered, slow-moving thunderstorms are producing heavy

rainfall, with rain rates of 2 inch/hr noted beneath stronger

storms.  Flash flooding is possible on an isolated basis.



Discussion...Strong insolation has support sufficient instability

for robust thunderstorm development generally along an axis from

just west of Abilene (Snyder), TX north-northeast to near Enid,

OK.  The storms are in an environment with very weak shear (mean

flow generally less than 15 knots across the discussion area), but

strong instability (2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and abundant moisture (1.7

inch PW) supporting deep updrafts and locally heavy rain. Forcing

for ascent is weak, although objective analyses depict a very weak

mid-level shortwave trough and vorticity max over western Oklahoma

that was likely providing ascent to support the deeper convection

currently developing.  Peak rain rates of 2 inches were occurring

in spots, which is generally falling below FFG thresholds of 2-2.5

inch/hr (locally lower in west-central Oklahoma though).



The ongoing scenario supporting isolated instances of flash

flooding should continue for several more hours.  Strong

insolation will continue to maintain large instability across the

discussion area, while localized/expanding cold pools support

newer updrafts across the discussion area with time.  Cell motions

should be slow and at times erratic.  Flash flood potential will

be locally enhanced in areas of favorable cell mergers that can

prolong rain rates in any given locale.  The isolated flash flood

risk should wane some after sunset/02Z or so.



Cook



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...



ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...



LAT...LON   36759724 35159732 33379860 32040037 32870097 

            34870118 35730050 36089980 36659891