949 

AWUS01 KWNH 052340

FFGMPD

TXZ000-060400-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0328

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

739 PM EDT Fri Jun 05 2026



Areas affected...portions of central Texas



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 052338Z - 060400Z



Summary...A band of convection was organizing along a north-south

axis from near Killeen to near Luling.  This will spread heavy

rainfall across portions of Austin Metro and surrounding areas for

at least the next 2-4 hours.  Flash flooding is possible in

sensitive locales.



Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicted a band of

convection from near Killeen south-southeastward to Luling (east

of San Antonio) that was increasing in organization and intensity

over the past hour or so.  The forcing mechanisms for this band

are currently unclear, bur are likely tied to subtle influences

from a mid/upper wave centered over far west Texas and subtle

confluence along a weak boundary separating rain-cooled air from

east Texas to slightly warmer conditions to the west. 

Unfortunately, these cells were organizing generally parallel to

weak southerly steering flow aloft, allowing for individual cells

to move slowly north while enabling the developing convective axis

to stay nearly stationary.  This has already resulted in spots of

2-3 inch/hr rain rates (and local FFG exceedence) between Killeen

and Georgetown along US 183, along with a gradual increase in

rates farther south near Austin.



With still a few hours of surface heating left, a window of

opportunity exists for convection to pose a flash flood risk for

the areas beneath this band.  Additional, forward-propagating

convection southeast of this axis (north of Victoria) may also

exhibit similar behavior (spots of 1-3 inch/hr rates at times). 

Flash flooding is possible in this regime. 



Models suggest that a downward trend in convective coverage should

materialize after sunset, though this will be modulated heavily by

convective organization -- any upscale growth of convection will

likely prolong activity and associated heavy rainfall risk.  The

current MPD will run through 04Z when flash flooding is most

likely to occur, and trends will be reevaluated for continued risk

around that time.



Cook



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...



ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...



LAT...LON   32109796 31199670 29929652 29169676 28679833 

            30009869 31579894