354 

AWUS01 KWNH 060118

FFGMPD

MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-060717-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0330

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

917 PM EDT Fri Jun 05 2026



Areas affected...southeastern Nebraska into southern Iowa,

northern Missouri, and a small part of northeastern Kansas



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely



Valid 060117Z - 060717Z



Summary...Strong thunderstorms will continue to gradually develop

across the discussion area.  Slow movement and favorable

orientation for backbuilding and training will pose a threat for

flash flooding, with locally significant impacts possible.



Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms are forming in earnest across

southeastern Nebraska currently.  The storms are likely responding

to increasing low-level convergence related to increasing 850mb

flow/low-level jet axis over western and central Kansas currently.

 The storms are in a strongly unstable and moist environment

(MLCAPE nearing 4000 J/kg, 1.4-1.7 inch PW), with modest steering

flow supporting slow storm motions and local backbuilding.  Given

the strong instability and favorable storm orientation, areas of

1-2 inch/hr rates were already being estimated per MRMS in a few

spots, approaching FFG thresholds (relatively low in southeastern

Nebraska and points southeastward).



Given the environment and downstream ground sensitivities (~1

inch/hr rain rates immediately downstream from NE into northwest

MO), flash flooding appears likely as convection slowly migrates

eastward.  Current evolution appears to support expanding

convective clusters that eventually form a mix of cells and small

linear segments as storm modes.  Flash flooding could become

significant in areas that experience prolonged rainfall and higher

rain rates.  Current trends suggest that FFG thresholds could

easily be doubled (rain rates exceeding 2.5 inch/hr) in a few

instances.  This risk will persist through the overnight hours,

again with backbuilding potential likely given the favorable,

orthogonal positioning of the KS low-level jet to the surface

boundary over southeastern Nebraska.



Cook



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...GID...OAX...TOP...



ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...



LAT...LON   41689696 41629397 41429279 40429258 39559367 

            39419704 40429907 41529907