471 

AWUS01 KWNH 060256

FFGMPD

TXZ000-OKZ000-060700-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0331

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

1054 PM EDT Fri Jun 05 2026



Areas affected...Northwest Texas...Southwest to Central Oklahoma



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely



Valid 060254Z - 060700Z



SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to anchor, back-build, and

train across the region overnight. Torrential rainfall rates of 2

to 3 in/hr will be capable of producing localized totals of 3 to 5

inches. Flash flooding is likely.



DISCUSSION...Recent GOES-E IR satellite imagery and regional radar

mosaics show an organized area of slow-moving convection across

central to southwest Oklahoma and adjacent northwest Texas. This

activity is blossoming directly along and north of a

quasi-stationary surface trough. Convective trends over the past

hour show highly efficient, discrete cells tending to consolidate,

with pronounced back-building occurring along the southern flank

of the convective mass.



The mesoscale environment is supportive of a localized, high-end

flash flood threat. Recent RAP mesoanalysis indicates a nocturnal

low-level jet (LLJ) slowly veering and strengthening to 30-35

knots out of the south. This LLJ is slamming directly into the

aforementioned surface trough and is yielding focused low-level

moisture convergence and mesoscale ascent. The thermodynamic

profile fueling this ascent is rich for early June, featuring an

influx of 1.75 to 2.00 inch PWATs and 1000 to 2000 J/kg of

elevated MUCAPE.



The primary catalyst for flash flooding tonight will be the

kinematic profile. As the LLJ continues to strengthen and veer, it

is effectively shrinking the Corfidi upwind propagation vectors to

less than 10 knots. Furthermore, these shortened vectors are

orienting nearly parallel to the stalled surface boundary and

opposite to the mean mid-level steering flow. This dynamic ensures

that cell regeneration on the inflow (upwind) flank of the cluster

will perfectly balance the downwind cell motion, leading to a

nearly stationary convective footprint.



Given the available moisture and instability, warm-rain processes

will dominate, easily yielding torrential rainfall rates of 2 to 3

in/hr. With relentless back-building and training expected to

persist over the next few hours, localized rainfall totals of 3 to

5 inches are likely. This will rapidly overwhelm local soils and

drainage basins, leading to instances of flash flooding.



Orrison



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...LUB...OUN...



ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...



LAT...LON   35669767 35499713 34629748 33949813 33649903 

            33609977 33870009 34269997 34729908 35499817