384 

AWUS01 KWNH 060600

FFGMPD

TXZ000-OKZ000-061030-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0333

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

158 AM EDT Sat Jun 06 2026



Areas affected...West-Central to Northwest Texas...Southwest to

Central Oklahoma



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely



Valid 060558Z - 061030Z



SUMMARY...An elongated axis of slow-moving, locally backbuilding,

and training thunderstorms will continue to impact portions of

west-central/northwest Texas and southwest/central Oklahoma. High

rainfall rates reaching up to 2 inches/hour will support locally

an additional 3 to 4+ inches of rain going through the early

morning hours. Regional areas of flash flooding are likely to

continue with locally significant impacts possible.



DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery and satellite data show

an expansive, elongated corridor of deep convection continuing to

impact west-central into northwest Texas, extending northeastward

into southwest and central Oklahoma. This convection is exhibiting

classic nocturnal heavy rainfall characteristics, including

persistent training and discrete backbuilding cells along the

upwind flank of the axis.



The atmospheric profile remains primed for extreme warm-rain

efficiency. Precipitable water (PW) values across the region are

highly anomalous, exceeding the 90th percentile of local

climatology and running greater than 2.5 standard deviations above

normal. This deeply tropical moisture plume is overlapping with a

moderately unstable airmass, with recent mesoanalysis indicating

elevated MUCAPE values pooling between 1000 and 2000 J/kg.



Forcing for continuous convective regeneration is being provided

by strong, divergent upper-level flow ahead of the southern High

Plains trough/closed low which is interacting with a well-defined

low-level surface trough. A strengthening 30 to 35 knot low-level

jet is maximizing speed and directional moisture convergence along

this low-level trough axis, continuously replenishing the

instability.



Furthermore, the local kinematic profile features highly favorable

Corfidi upwind propagation vectors. As the low-level jet veers and

reinforces the inflows, the resultant upwind vectors are shrinking

significantly and orienting nearly parallel to the low-level

convergent axis. This setup guarantees that new cells will

repeatedly regenerate on the southwestern flank of the cluster and

mature over the same downstream locations, resulting in a

persistent train-echo effect.



Given the deep warm-cloud layers and notable thermodynamic

support, rainfall rates up to 2 inches/hour will still be

achievable within the core of this activity. Where training

becomes anchored for multiple hours, localized additional totals

of 3 to 4+ inches are likely, which will continue to support a

regional threat for flash flooding and potentially significant

impacts.



Orrison



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...



ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...



LAT...LON   35529794 35389750 34759749 34219772 33179821 

            31779926 31500006 31680069 32000110 32470135 

            33000107 33660021 34579936 35249872