484 

AWUS01 KWNH 060902

FFGMPD

TXZ000-OKZ000-061500-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0335

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

500 AM EDT Sat Jun 06 2026



Areas affected...Portions of Central and Northern Texas...The Red

River Valley...Central and Eastern Oklahoma



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely



Valid 060900Z - 061500Z



SUMMARY...Expanding areas of highly efficient, locally training

thunderstorms will spread northward across the region this

morning. Pockets of extreme rainfall rates reaching 2 to 3

inches/hour will be capable of producing localized totals of 3 to

5+ inches. Scattered areas of flash flooding are likely, with

sensitive urban locations being particularly vulnerable.



DISCUSSION...An increasingly divergent flow regime is spreading

aloft across the southern Plains as an upper-level trough and an

associated closed low over west Texas gradually shift

northeastward. Deep-layer southerly flow, positioned between this

western trough and a subtropical ridge over the Southeast U.S.,

has established a highly anomalous moisture conveyor belt. Recent

OSPO/CIRA ALPW data highlights a dual-feed tropical moisture tap

with Gulf moisture actively streaming northward in the low levels,

while an eastern Pacific moisture feed is being drawn through the

mid and upper-levels of the atmospheric column.



This rich moisture profile features a substantial warm cloud

layer. When coupled with moderate instability characterized by

MLCAPE values locally up to 1500 J/kg, the environment is

exceptionally primed for highly efficient, extreme rainfall rates.

Furthermore, embedded vort maxima within the mid-level southerly

flow are providing focused localized forcing for ascent. Over the

past couple of hours, this energy has already supported focused

convection with very high rainfall rates generally east of Waco

(between the I-35 and I-45 corridors), where a band of storms is

lifting north-northeastward and locally training over the same

areas.



Through the mid to late morning hours, the primary concern will

shift northward as deep-layer moisture convergence and forced

ascent increase across portions of the Red River Valley of the

South. Convection is expected to increasingly impact northern

Texas, including the highly vulnerable and densely populated

Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area, as well as adjacent areas of

southern, central, and eastern Oklahoma.



The environment strongly supports the development of additional

locally training and backbuilding thunderstorms. These high

rainfall rates, which may reach 2 to 3 inches/hour with the

stronger convective cores, and subsequent localized rainfall

totals of 3 to 5+ inches this morning are strongly supported by a

consensus of the 06Z HREF alongside recent runs of the HRRR and

RRFS. This will likely result in at least scattered areas of flash

flooding, posing an elevated threat to more sensitive urban

locations.



Orrison



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...



ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...



LAT...LON   36599665 36509567 36049500 35319474 33919489 

            32339546 30959646 30649748 30689837 31069893 

            31669890 32269867 33479828 34479828 35709809 

            36359748