332 

FNUS28 KWNS 052159

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0457 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026



Valid 071200Z - 131200Z



...Synopsis...

A deepening upper-level trough will bring multiple rounds of

enhanced flow across portions of the western US from the

Intermoutain West into the Great Basin and Southwest. Multiple

periods of critical fire weather will be likely from D3/Sunday

through D6/Wednesday. Beyond the mid-week, flow aloft weakens

gradually. A few areas of locally critical conditions may persist

across the southwest D7/Thursday.



...Day 3/Sunday...

The upper-level low will advance towards the Northern Rockies, with

a trailing cold front further south and east.  The strongest winds

aloft will overspread eastern UT, northern and eastern AZ, and

western CO. Expect sustained southwest winds of 20 to 25 mph to

overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5 to 15 percent,

across the Southern Rockies and Southwest. The 70 percent Critical

probability remains across southern and eastern UT, northern AZ, and

western CO. 40 percent Critical probabilities encompass the

remaining portions of southeast NV, northwest NM, and central WY

where fuels are receptive. While confidence is not yet high enough

to warrant a drawn area, a non-zero chance of mixed dry/wet

thunderstorms over northern UT will be watched with future forecast

guidance.



Strong mid-level flow will also overspread portions of southern

Idaho on D3/Sunday. A secondary 70% critical region was introduced

across the Snake River Plain. In this region, strong westerly

surface flow around 20-30 mph will overlap relative humidity

reductions to around 10-15 percent and critically dry fuels.



...Day 4/Monday...

The region enters a temporary synoptic transition phase between the

departing northern Rockies trough and the next approaching Pacific

system. Broad and persistent southwesterly flow will continue across

Southwest and Great Basin. Deeply mixed profiles under clear skies

will generate localized breezy conditions with 15 to 25 mph gusts

amid relative humidity reductions to 5 to 15%. The 70% area was

maintained with this update across southern Utah into northern

Arizona with a slight expansion into western Colorado. 40% Critical

probabilities encompass the remaining portions of southeast NV,

western CO, and central WY where fuels are receptive.



...Day 5/Tuesday - Day 7/Thursday...

Medium-range models and ensemble guidance show strong consensus for

a secondary, potentially more intense trough digging into the

western US again by mid-week. Ahead of this feature, an amplified

pressure gradient will trigger strong south/southwest surface winds.

This will likely cause continued widespread critical fire weather

conditions across a large swath of the Great Basin and Southwest. A

70 percent Critical probability was maintained across southern UT

and northern AZ D5/Tuesday where confidence is highest. Slight

expansion of the 70% was given in western Colorado where confidence

in stronger winds has increased. A 40 percent Critical probability

also continues Tuesday and Wednesday in nearby areas including far

eastern NV and portions of central WY. 



A small 40% area was introduced across northern Arizona into

southern Utah D7/Thursday. Consensus is increasing that continued

overlap of dry/windy conditions will continue into this period.

After multiple rounds of windy/dry conditions fuels in the region

will be critically dry.



..Thornton.. 06/05/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$