171 

AGUS74 KWCO 051952

HMDNWC



National Hydrologic Discussion - EXPERIMENTAL

NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa AL

300 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026



...Considerable river flooding and locally considerable flash flooding  

possible across portions of the Central Plains into the Middle Mississippi  

Valley... Isolated flash and urban flooding expected in Texas...



.Central Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley...

A Considerable flood impacts selection was introduced on today's FHO across  

portions of the Delaware (KS), Missouri-Nishnabotna (MO), and Grand (MO)  

River basins, where moderate river flooding is expected through this  

weekend. With additional rainfall forecast over the headwaters of these  

basins, new and renewed river flooding remains possible through the  

weekend. Additionally, a Limited flood impacts selection remains in place  

across portions of the Central Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley,  

where a multi-day flood threat continues to evolve.



In the near term, locally considerable flash flooding is possible across  

southeast Nebraska and southern Iowa through Saturday morning as additional  

rounds of heavy rainfall develop over increasingly saturated conditions.  

While a brief lull in precipitation today has allowed for some surface  

drying, soils remain highly sensitive and streamflows are elevated. As a  

result, any additional heavy rainfall will likely transition efficiently to  

runoff, increasing the potential for flash flooding. The National Water  

Model (NWM) Short Range Forecast (SRF) continues to indicate a broad  

corridor of rapid-onset flooding potential from Lincoln, NE into the  

southwest corner of Iowa through early Saturday morning, with widespread  

signals of high unit discharges and streamflow magnitudes in the 10% to 4%  

AEP range. These signals support the potential for locally significant  

hydrologic responses, particularly across smaller and flashier streams and  

creeks.



Elsewhere across the broader region, flash, urban, and small stream  

flooding remains possible through the weekend as repeated rounds of  

convection impact the area. With antecedent conditions already wet and  

additional rainfall totals of 1 to 3" forecast through Sunday, runoff  

efficiency is expected to remain high, which may prolong both flash  

flooding and river flooding concerns into early next week. Given these  

conditions, the timing and extent of the flood impacts selections may be  

adjusted if confidence in additional hydrologic impacts increases.



.Texas...

Isolated flash and urban flooding is expected through tonight across  

eastern Texas as guidance has increased the areal coverage of isolated  

higher rainfall totals associated with developing convection across the  

region. As such, a Limited impacts area was added to the FHO across much of  

the central and eastern portion of the state. The NWM SRF also indicates  

isolated potential for small stream flooding impacts. Antecedent conditions  

are not particularly vulnerable to new flooding, likely mitigating any  

widespread flooding concerns.



//Freeman



Additional National Water Center products are available at  

www.weather.gov/owp/operations







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