454 

ACUS01 KWNS 050059

SWODY1

SPC AC 050057



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0757 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026



Valid 050100Z - 051200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE NORTHERN PLAINS...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and

damaging winds are possible this evening across much of South Dakota

into parts of northern Nebraska and south-central Minnesota.

Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will also be possible in

parts of the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley.



...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley...

At mid-levels, west-southwesterly flow is evident over much of the

north-central U.S. A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor

imagery over the far western Dakotas. At the surface, a 1002 mb low

is analyzed in eastern Wyoming with a quasi-stationary front

extending northeastward into central South Dakota and north-central

Minnesota. An axis of low-level moisture is located from near the

Black Hills east-northeastward across South Dakota into

south-central Minnesota, where surface dewpoints are in the lower to

mid 60s F. Along and near this axis, the RAP has MLCAPE mostly in

the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Scattered strong to severe

thunderstorms are ongoing near the instability axis in the vicinity

of the Black Hills in southwestern South Dakota. The latest 00Z

sounding at Rapid City has 0-6 km shear around 50 knots with 700-500

mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This will support supercells with large

hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be

possible for a few more hours this evening. The wind-damage threat

will likely increase if a cell cluster can become organized and move

into central South Dakota later this evening...see MCD 983. The

southern edge of any cluster could impact parts of northern Nebraska

later this evening.



Further east into eastern South Dakota, a cluster of strong to

severe thunderstorms is ongoing. The 00Z sounding at Aberdeen has

MUCAPE around 1800 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, and a

700-500 mb lapse rate just above 7 C/km. This should support

supercells with large hail early this evening. 0-3 km lapse rates

near 7.5 C/km will also be favorable for severe wind gusts. The

severe threat is expected to increase in southeast and central

Minnesota later this evening, as the storms in eastern South Dakota

move along the instability axis.



...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...

A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over

eastern Kansas. At the surface, a moist airmass is in place from

much of central and eastern Kansas northeastward into Iowa, where

surface dewpoints are in the upper 60s to near 70 F. Moderate to

strong instability is analyzed by the RAP from central Kansas into

far western Missouri. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the

northern edge of the stronger instability from northeast Kansas into

southwest Iowa. These storms are being supported by a low-level

speed max of 35 to 45 knots, and could be associated with a threat

for isolated severe wind gusts and hail this evening. As low-level

flow increases from this evening into the overnight period, the

redevelopment of storms may occur over parts of central and eastern

Kansas, where a continued marginal severe threat will be possible.



..Broyles.. 06/05/2026



$$