883 

ACUS11 KWNS 042246

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 042246 

SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-050015-



Mesoscale Discussion 0982

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0546 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026



Areas affected...Eastern MT...northeast WY...western SD...southwest

ND



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272...



Valid 042246Z - 050015Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272

continues.



SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will continue into the early

evening.



DISCUSSION...Scattered strong storms are ongoing as of 2230 UTC from

southeast MT/southwest ND into northeast WY. The environment remains

generally favorable for organized convection, with MLCAPE of

near/above 1000 J/kg and effective shear of 40+ kt. A low-amplitude

midlevel shortwave trough moving across eastern MT should help to

sustain convection into the early evening, with at least transient

supercells possible. 



In the short term, isolated large hail and localized severe gusts

will remain possible with the strongest storms. Cooler temperatures

and stronger MLCINH are in place east of the Black Hills, but

low-level moisture also becomes more favorable with eastward extent,

along/north of a surface boundary draped from southwest into

south-central SD. If a larger-scale outflow can develop from ongoing

convection, there will be some potential for upscale growth near the

intersection of the outflow and surface boundary during the evening.



..Dean.. 06/04/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...



LAT...LON   47500497 46620348 45930255 45350225 44530235 43600260

            43290274 43210296 43310351 43420474 43440598 44110606

            45280624 47140590 47500497 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN