323 ACUS11 KWNS 051813 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051812 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-051945- Mesoscale Discussion 0987 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026 Areas affected...portions of northeastern South Dakota into central Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 051812Z - 051945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms developing near the ND/SD/MN border will bring the potential for damaging wind gusts and large hail as they progress east-southeastward this afternoon. Trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible satellite imagery depicts increasingly agitated cumulus in close proximity to a weak surface low analyzed near the ND/SD/MN border, with recent lightning activity noted with a developing thunderstorm in Wilkin County, MN. Continued heating of a moist, low-level air mass (dewpoints in the 60s F) is supporting around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, with further destabilization likely to support 1500-2000 J/kg by peak heating this afternoon. Compared to areas farther east, effective shear is marginally greater across this region, with 30-35 kts analyzed per latest objective analysis. Modest mid-level lapse rates (6.5-7.0 C/km per latest mesoanalysis) will support some potential for large hail with initially discrete convection, with steep low-level lapse rates also promoting a threat for damaging wind gusts. With time, expectation is for this activity to organize along developing cold pools into one or more bowing segments/convective clusters, with some increase in the threat for damaging wind gusts possible. Trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance. ..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 46269414 45699396 45209393 44889401 44629427 44519467 44529548 44669633 44809684 45119736 45379745 45719736 46459664 46849616 46999590 46979528 46809482 46649461 46269414 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN